Cheers to Errol for being able to change his opinion.
He closes with this.
I'll close with a quote from Hook that pretty well covers it for me too. :)
"I'd laugh if I didn't have a good chunk of change tied up in AMD, which I refuse to sell because, hey, AMD's on the brink of kicking Intel's ass =)"
If he had truly changed his opinion then he would not still have a "good chunk of change" invested in AMD. His best case scenario is that AMD breaks even for the next three years, but he still remains invested? Lacks credibility.
The guy is just playing the classic role of bear pretending to be a reformed bull to try and make his arguments carry more weight.
As for the FACTS: that he posts I would say this.
Its all about earnings
Not a fact. A lot has to do with earnings potential, particularly when looking for big returns on investments.
Since the introduction of the Athlon the cheerleaders have been making many assertions about the demise of Intel and FUTURE success of AMD.
Possibly, but who cares about these "cheerleaders"?
AMD did quite well for a year, it didn't take Intel long to realize their mistakes and take corrective actions that have made it very difficult for AMD to remain profitable.
And made it difficult for Intel to remain profitable. No disputing that AMD and Intel have been slugging it out. But he makes out he is discussing competetive advantage, not merely the downsides of ASP erosion.
Since 2Q01 (possibly even Q1) AMD has been losing market share back to Intel from a high of about 22% to 18.5% in 4Q01.
Only if you take Intel's statements on this as gospel and ignore the independent market research. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
AMD's earnings have dropped like a rock into negative territory while Intel's have remained comparatively flat and positive.
Huh? Comparatively flat?
The P4 has not been the failure that nearly everyone predicted, quite the opposite, it's a very competitive product and Intel is marketing it very well.
Now he speaks for "nearly everybody". Well P4 is hardly very competetive. Competetive, yes, marketed well, certainly. But if it was "very competetive" AMD would be on their knees.
Jerry has made it quite clear they have no intention of trying to achieve ASPs similar to Intel's but rather that their goal is to bring Intel's ASPs down to the sub $100 range
Where does he get some of his "facts" from? He infers that just because Jerry wants to kill Intel it means lower ASPs? Jerry also wants to make loads of money and I have to say I think the money comes first with him. But is is all opinion, hardly fact.
No one knows how the Hammer will scale against the P4, what, if any performance lead it may enjoy at introduction, when it will be launched or even if it will be on time. For at least the next six months all discussions here, including demand and earnings potential is pure speculation.
Interesting. He says noone knows when Hammer will be launched, yet he states as "fact" that this will remain the case for at least the next six months. Does he know something about the Hammer timescales? But then he would be lying about noone knowing...
Seriously, what is any investment but a well-considered speculation anyway? |
