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Strategies & Market Trends : News Links and Chart Links
SPXL 201.97-2.5%Nov 18 4:00 PM EST
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To: Les H who wrote (1722)4/5/2002 1:38:17 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) of 29597
 
9-month cycle

cycle tendencies
10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low
Sep 21 start start start 965 none
Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A.
Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42
Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61
Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25
Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22
Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49
Mar 5 green green yellow 1146 + 50 1157 + 61 1074 - 22
Mar 28 yellow green yellow 1147 + 1 1173 + 27 1131 - 15
Apr 19 red yellow red 1126 - 23 1148 + 1 1119 - 28
May 14 green yellow red
Jun 6 yellow red red
Jun 28 red red red

Possible targets for approximate low SPX of current row made near April 19

(1) using the distance from the previous row's close (1147)

a. maximum distance in a previous red/bear row

1086 = 1147 - 61

b. minimum distance in a previous red/bear row

1098 = 1147 - 49

c. average of the two distances

1092 = 1147 - 55

(2) using the distance from the previous row's high (1173)

a. maximum distance in a previous red/bear row

1074 = 1173 - (1177 - 1078)

b. minimum distance in a previous red/bear row

1101 = 1173 - (1126 - 1054)

c. average of the two distances

1087 = 1173 - 86

(3) using a fib multiple of the first downleg from 1173 to 1130

a. 1113 (1156 - 43)

b. 1086 (1156 - 1.62 * 43)

c. 1070 (1156 - 2.00 * 43)

(4) using a fib retracement off the February low

a. 1113 (0.62 retracement)

b. 1097 (0.76 retracement)

c. 1073 (1.00 retracement)

(5) using a fib retracement off the September low

a. 1119 (0.24 retracement)

b. 1086 (0.38 retracement)

c. 1059 (0.50 retracement)
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