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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED
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To: Sully- who wrote (49573)4/5/2002 2:37:01 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) of 65232
 
GreenBubble has directed bubble location
excellent details on real estate bubble, thanks
no margin calls in this safer location
but a limitation on margin debt usage
it has its own cycle and trends
and its own momentum with longer timespans

my best friend in Boston made a fortune in residential and commercial real estate
we talked by phone two weeks ago
he just completed the sale of three semi-large properties
his reason: Boston has a bubble problem
he sold a bunch of residential property in 1986-87
smart guy
he reasons that real estate will suffer a change in trend when mortgage rates tick back toward 8%
they already have moved back over 7%, frustrating GreenDick

I read that a 1% change in property value translates into twice the consumer spending, as compared to a 1% change in stock portfolio value
interesting, twice the power
so GreenAir has built a bubble with even bigger spending power

all bubbles spring leaks, some more than others
my conclusion is that US prevailing interest rates will climb, due to
- higher energy costs
- bigger federal deficits
- switch of hot money from US$ to Euro
- Islamic retaliation and preservation, securing money in Euro
- gradual movement of $1200 billion MZM money into economy, resulting in standard textbook price inflation

very very little to keep the dollar high, and thus rates low
the mere fact that the dollar currency and rates are so tightly woven contradicts the view that the USDollar is money at all

it is debt, but I must be getting boring to hear
/ jim
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