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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 90.56-4.4%3:59 PM EST

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To: h0db who wrote (81790)4/5/2002 3:35:30 PM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 93625
 
Hi h0db; Re: "Carl, you're wrong on a couple of points.
The E7500 is for Xeon only. It is a server chipset ...
"

The comment I was responding to was: "When/if you finally see *real* dual-channel DDR chipset from VIA, SIS, Intel, do you think they will be able to use more than 2 DIMMs?" If you don't think the E7500 is a *real* dual channel DDR chipset, then hey, more power to ya!

Re: "Second, the E7500 only uses PC1600, and they must be ECC, Registered, and Buffered DIMMs--which cost quite a bit more than your standard/nonstandard DDR modules."

Pricewatch figures for PC1600 and PC800, ECC/Registered and plain vanilla:

       Regular  ECC/Reg
DDR $120 $137
RDRAM $124 $150


In other words, the increase in price for adding ECC and registered is not significant, and in any case, even though RDRAM is in the midst of a glut while DDR is in the midst of a huge ramp up, the corresponding prices for regular and ECC DDR are still cheaper than the prices for RDRAM. After the RDRAM glut subsides the difference will grow wider. I'm using the 512MB figures because this is the smallest DIMM that a rational purchaser of a $500 MB with 8 DIMM slots would possibly consider. I'd compare prices at 1024MB, but while there are a couple dozen entries for 1024MB DDR DIMMs, there are zero entries for 1024MB RIMMs. This should be a fairly strong indication of why it is that RDRAM is dead in the server region.

Re: "In fact, at the IDF, Intel stressed that there will be NO PC2100 version of the E7500 because it makes no difference on a server chipset." This is particularly bad news for Rambus. What Intel is saying is exactly what the industry has been telling you -- there is no need for significantly higher bandwidth than is available with current technology.

In other words, Rambus isn't needed, DDR does it all. From graphics to servers, DDR has sewed up the market completely. Say goodbye to the last tiny niche (workstations) by the end of the year.

-- Carl

P.S. I wonder what Rambus will say at their conference call next week.
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