Still no buy signal on the Naz. The first short-term buy signal for S&P and Dow was yesterday. Nice move this morning, after that signal. The risk is that the long-term CI's are still overbought. Also, the S&P ST CI didn't close near 0 yesterday. There was a reversal after the ST S&P CI hit 0 intraday several times yesterday, but there's still the possibility that the S&P CI could attempt to close near 0 before the downtrend is over. So that was the risk to consider in entering any trades based on the intraday signals yesterday.
ST Naz CI: 18.707 37.733
MT Naz CI: 42.201 52.544
LT Naz CI: 82.244 85.104
ST S&P CI: 37.710 18.994
MT S&P CI: 47.775 32.084
LT S&P CI: 84.285 79.563
Why no hot picks? Because any trader buying on the basis of some other trader's hot picks has a lot to learn. And it'll be learned the hard way, no doubt. SWC was a hot pick on one thread recently, for example, and it promptly plunged.
What's one of the best way to get burned? Pay attention to hot picks. The more certain a guru is about a hot pick, the more likely it is to plunge. In a speculative market, the bigger moves come when there's risk, when there's uncertainty.
If you're determined to follow hot picks, because you believe there are people capable of predicting the future, ask for specific entry points, targets, stop points and time frames, and minimize your risk by keeping your trades small. And when the stock tanks, don't expect your guru to say, "I was wrong." It probably won't happen. If there's any further word on the bad trade, it'll probably be some slippery circumlocution in hindsight about how you had to be quick, double up after it tanked and ride it back up (yet another risky, dumb idea). Or your guru will tell you that the trade didn't look good after all, and you never should have bought, and if you'd read the note on the hot pick carefully, you would have realized that it had warned you not to buy. The magic of hindsight and revision.
And so on and so forth. |
