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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Mani1 who wrote (144054)4/6/2002 3:32:39 AM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 1578366
 
I remember that in the trough of both past two semi cycles, everyone said there is enough manufacturing capacity for the next several years to only face a shortage 9 months later.

I predict the depression in telecom will come to a sudden end and there will be a new companies creating billion for their shareholders.

I am looking for somewhere to put my money and leaning toward the metro side of optical stocks. I can’t see the market appetite for telecom stock get any worse. Any thought or guidance is appreciated.

Mani, funny, I saw a similar contrarian article just a few weeks ago. The premise of that article was that the current chaos in the telecom world is masking the potential for a shortage. Certainly, with companies the size of Qwest in financial trouble, its hard to believe anyone can maintain their current capex budget, let alone increase it. But this other article said that in fact the larger companies will find a way to increase their capex spending near the end of this year. Another wild card is IT spending....when wil corporations start to grow their networks again and plug them into the internet.

And I agree metro is the way to go. I like CIEN especially with its recent purchase of ONIS. I also like CMVT.....and maybe ADCT. Do you still like MRVC? Any others you are looking at?

Another one that is more an internet telecommunications play is ITXC. I have a small amount and plan to add slowly.

I pretty much agree with your conclusions and everyone knows the time to buy these stocks is now when they are in the trough portion of their cycle. However, the problem is trying to hold them especially if the trough drags on for months....they're dead weight in your portfolio. And it doesn't help that every few months they have these false start rallies that fail.

ted
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