Gold Aims to Recapture Its Lustre
As a Safe Hedge in Troubled Times
By Richard Morrissey
Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
April 3, 2002
After years of playing the part of Cinderella
to other more-favored financial assets, gold
is finally shaking off its dowdy image and
taking a shot at gaining the prize for best-
performing asset market of 2002.
Since 1997, $300 an ounce has been a ceiling
for gold as a combination of central bank
auctions and lending to hedge funds, forward
sales by gold producers, and the much-touted
death of inflation conspired to keep the
price well below its historic high of $870
hit in 1980.
To those gold bugs who have never given up
hope that this once-lauded store of value
would again take its rightful place in the
pantheon of credible financial instruments,
the poor performance of the commodity has
been nothing short of a conspiracy.
Indeed, according to many gold aficionados,
particularly those at the Gold Anti-Trust
Action Committee, the U.S. Federal Reserve,
the U.S. Treasury, and European central
banks, in league with major U.S. investment
banks, have conspired to keep the price of
gold low.
Gold broke through the $300 level to reach a
two-year high of $307.80 on 8 February. But
the move did not last long, and as the price
drifted off German Bundesbank President Ernst
Welteke conveniently speculated that Germany
might at some stage start selling gold. The
timing of his statement was seen by many as
an attempt by the central banks to ensure the
price of the commodity remained capped below
$300. However, the price has since rebounded,
trading back above the key $300 level last
week.
The latest rebound has been driven by new-
found interest from the hedge funds, many of
which are betting that persistent selling by
large investment banks to keep the price
down, and central bank comments to achieve
the same end, will ultimately fail to cap the
upward trend.
Indeed, the talk now is that this so-called
cartel is about to get its comeuppance, with
some gold optimists suggesting gold may hit
$600 or even $1,000 an ounce.
The Enron scandal has brought to the fore the
issue of cartels and especially the role of
so-called bullion banks that reportedly have
very large short positions in gold via the
derivatives market. These are now being
squeezed as the price of the commodity rises.
Indeed, there is wildfire speculation among
some U.S. gold watchers that if the price of
gold moves even $20-$30 higher we are going
to see these shorts getting hammered.
There are plenty of other reasons why gold
and gold-related stocks are worth serious
consideration. As well as Enron, the markets
also have to contend with Argentina's debt
default and the huge bankruptcy cases of U.S.
companies.
Another factor favoring gold is the
quadrupling of purchases of bullion by
Japanese consumers worried about the safety
of their bank deposits. Also, investors in
the Middle East have started to actively
purchase the metal as tensions over Iraq,
Israel, and Palestine mount.
Finally the all-powerful U.S. dollar, which
has held up remarkably well in the face of a
weaker U.S. economy, evaporating corporate
profits, and heightened worries over the
threat from terrorism, may be set for a
downturn, which usually means higher gold
prices.
Against this backdrop there is a genuine case
for thinking that gold provides an attractive
hedge against financial and political stress.
However, gold has to become more than just an
icon of gold bugs, conspiracy theorists, and
short-term speculators. Instead it needs to
broaden its appeal as an asset among
mainstream investors anxious to protect
themselves in an increasingly uncertain
financial and political environment.
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Richard Morrissey is publisher of
www.CreditCurve.com. |
