Justa, the arms index is really startling, we had a 1.5 signal on the 10 day moving average in January, and here we are in April threatening to reach that level again....for the fourth time in a year. This is just a huge amount of selling on an historical basis, we have not seen anything like this in the last 60 years. During that time frame, the maximum number of 10 day arms signals we had was two before the bear market ended. I would really like to know what the arms indicator would look like for the dow in 1929 to 1932....do you know if anyone has done this calculation?
It is also interesting that we did not get much of a rally after the January signal, just that very weak late february rally, which is also unprecedented, I believe. In the past, an arms signal over 1.5 would indicate the start of a significant rally within 21 trading days, but all we got was a weak rally that was later than 21 days.
It would seem that in our current context, an arms signal is not necessarily bullish, and may even be bearish. It underscores that this is a time to be defensive, not aggressive......I am sticking with my gold stocks and tech shorts for now.
Robin |
