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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: carranza2 who wrote (23680)4/6/2002 12:11:18 PM
From: Win Smith  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
I assume you mean "The battle between Russia and Saudi Arabia for oil dominance" foreignaffairs.org . You can check the previous comments on that article here by following the response chains from #reply-17069011 . As I posted at the time, that particular incisive article was not totally consistent. In particular, from that article:

Even before September 11, concerns had been raised over American reliance on Middle East oil. Global oil demand has been increasing by between 1.5 and 2 mbd each year, a rate of growth with alarming long-term consequences. The U.S. Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency both project that global oil demand could grow from the current 77 mbd to 120 mbd in 20 years, driven by the United States and the emerging markets of South and East Asia. The agencies assume that most of the supply required to meet this demand must come from OPEC, whose production is expected to jump from 28 mbd in 1998 to 60 mbd in 2020. Virtually all of this increase would come from the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia.

Russia will no doubt increase production, but I think there's some wishful thinking going on when people talk about Mideast / Saudi production somehow becoming irrelevant and inconsequential.
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