Mobile theater on a World Cup stage:
==========
Who’s on center stage?
Korea is the epicenter of mobile innovation. European cartographers were instructed to strike it from maps, and a myopic 3GSM industry erased it from memory. However, the World Cup will make it awkward for Europe to ignore the primacy of EV technology that was commercialized in Korea.
KDDI will make it impossible. With standard-bearer DoCoMo in Japan, Europe cannot exclude Japan from its maps or memory. They will be obliged to face the realities of comparative analysis.
KDDI will now have evdo for the World Cup. Did KDDI accelerate its schedule due to the upgrade success reported by SK, or growing ARPU in Korea? Did Korean technology put ERICY’s to shame? Was it simply too tempting to humiliate DoCoMo?
Humiliate is not too strong a word. Peak do performance rates are 6 times greater than FOMA. Polished do appliances and applications will be imported from Korea with assistance from Samsung and World Cup partner carriers, who have a vested interest in its success. KDDI 3G subscribers may well surpass FOMA’s before the games begin.
1xevdo is the bane of 3GPP strategic planning.
3GSM proponents work hard to diminish its significance. They must hope that EV technology will not gain momentum until evdv… because evdo represents 5 years of asymmetric competition against exceptionally superior performance, services, capacity and price.
And unlike GPRSfailures and EDGEfantasies - evdo truly appears to be an easy, inexpensive upgrade.
Also, cdma2000 and fixed UMTS (without handoff liability) flavors of HDR, based on proprietary Q technology, are attracting broadband providers - including NTT in Japan and Monet in the US. Who’s next?
==========
Who’s fallen off the stage?
Europe is in the midst of a telecom depression that may prove chronic. GPRS performance failures led to an amusing mantra: high data speeds aren’t required for high-speed data. But the real GPRS Achilles heel is capacity. There isn’t any. Or at least there isn’t any without massive spending for cell splitting networks - ask China Mobile. This is the dirty little secret.
Europe, for good reason, is leery of EDGEfantasies. 3GSM vendors must now pump it as a solution for their abject failure with GPRS… they’ve little choice. Tellingly, EDGEfantasies are born of desperation - not inspiration.
UMTS is on its heels. Even DoCoMo, who had the advantage of working outside the boundary of shoddy 3GPP Standards, is failing to promote its technology in its own back yard. (How many cell stations will be required for the DoCoMo chicken to cross the road - and still be in range?) With few exceptions, European carriers backpedal on 3G schedules - consistent with IJ's prescient projections.
Who will be the first carrier to reject 3G infrastructure installed by cdma vendor virgins?
Europe may soon be pleased that the spotlight shines elsewhere.
==========
Who’s in the audience?
The China delegation is in the front row. Unlike Europe, China can “see” Korea.
There’s Unicom, with technology partner SK… but are they in the audience, or are they back stage? Like KDDI, will Unicom have evdo shortly after launching 1x?
There’s Mobile, who recently described its GPRS trial a failure, then allocated only 4.5% of the next 2 year’s budget to 2.5G services. Will Mobile choose wisely?
There’s Telecom, who has already expressed a preference for cdma2000 for its mobile license, and whose broadband division has a natural interest as well.
India WLL operators are in attendance, and eye an inexpensive, simple-to-implement broadband addition to their strategy.
Central Asia and Indonesia are learning the score, as is Latin America, with Spanish carrier Telefonica Moviles collecting cdma properties. In Eastern Europe, interest grows as cdma is reborn in Russia, and Romania beats western brethren to 3G.
In North America, Verizon tests do in two key markets:
"Aside from weighing up implementation costs against customer enthusiasm, the trial, which will feature a mixture of company employees and some current enterprise customers, will look at the technology in action. Handoffs between the two test cell sites and the speed of real life applications will also be monitored."
How will enterprise customers respond to do service? Is there really any doubt?
arstechnica.com
Will Verizon introduce evdo soon after launching 1x as well? And there is Monet, who will offer all-you-can-eat do for $49.95 this year. Who will be next? How will Sprint PCS and FON modify their plans in response to a competitive landscape they did not expect?
Of course, Western Europe will wander the audience as well – seeking spare change.
==========
For the month of June, the World Cup will provide a global stage. Technology will complement sport. The battle for mindshare will be irrevocably altered. The mobile wars are far from over. |
