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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: mishedlo who wrote (48082)4/7/2002 1:10:54 PM
From: sylvester80  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
M, I don't see a big enough impetus for a "hard" down. Evidence of a double dip recession will do it but so far the data is inconclusive at this stage IMO. With earnings coming out next week, if we get a good earnings start, we could see some upside movement. Also I expect a pullback of Israel with Powell arriving Monday which should help the oil markets and financial markets in general.

So IMO I think in the short term we'll stay in a trading range rather than hard down or hard up (even though my bias at the moment from here will be to head up, not down). However, economic indicators that make more clearly one of the two cases (either a double dip or a continued recovery) during the next 4-8 weeks could give you a hard move (up or down). I just think with current data there is not enough evidence to make the case conclusively for either side yet.

One thing that everyone and the street must pay more attention to is the fact that IMO, the Fed will NOT absolutely positively move to raise rates till they are absolutely positively certain that a recovery is in 100% absolute sure footing. And the continuation of low rates as we have now and the fact that Fed will not tighten till they see real sustain recovery, limits the downside IMO and gives reason for upside with even a hint of sustain recovery.

JMHO.
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