SDLI - JDSU transition Message Board

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Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition

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To: OWN STOCK who wrote (3133)	4/7/2002 5:23:21 PM
From: techreports	Read Replies (1) of 3294

The truth is that much of the equipment that will hit the surplus market will be good for (maybe) spares. The architecture (hardware to software) of say Ciena equipment is far different from say Nortel. So in spite of wavelength and data standards, equipment is not easily interchangable. The standards just makes sure Ciena fiber can talk to Nortel fiber. Line card A fit into rack B? Fugedaboutit! If you have a Nortel rack system, and the company folding has the same, then you might bother to take a look at their surplus list. Operators are not cavalier about the condition of the equipment either. So I guess I shouldn't worry too much about the effects this would have on the system and components guys..? What do you think of a possible bandwidth shortage? If a number of carriers disappear, will the players left standing be able to meet demand? The biggest thing JDSU brings to components is capacity. All component sales in the next year will be small numbers. They will be for things that are not in inventory: leading edge, latest technology. That puts JDSU in no better position than a start-up. In fact, maybe worse due to higher overhead costs and bureaucracy. Until capacity is a big part of the equation, a start-up could give JDSU a very big run for their money. JDSU would probably end up having to buy them for a nice premium. So that is what I mean about well positioned: lot's of cash to buy their market position. What start-ups? There isn't much money to be made in this industry right now. I would think JDSU is still in the best position because of the partnerships they have and security they can offer the system guys, ect.. but maybe i'm putting too much weight behind jdsu's ability to with-stand this downturn and the value that offers the carriers and system people.

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