Tech:
I am not at all worried about used surplus equipment, new in the box is another matter. That might impact sales of spares at Ciena or Nortel a tiny bit, but not much. Again, it is pretty specialized.
Partnerships formed these days are formed for much different reasons that they were in the good days: the market is very different.
A start-up can partner too.
There are a lot of start-ups out there, each ready to eat JDSU's lunch. Especially in this market. They bring the latest technology, lower prices, and their capacity though miniscule, is OK for current needs. If and when the market starts to ramp, then they can ramp along with it. I do not think the market will ramp 100-300%/yr like it did last time (more like 50% max), so bottom line start-ups are just fine to do business with.
That's why VC's are saving the best of the optical start-ups in their portfolios, even in the face of the segment's crappy performance. If they can get sales traction, they are well positioned to get some of JDSUs or Nortels or Cornings or Fitels or Finisars, (etc) cash. The odd one might even IPO.
JMHO
-Own |
