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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets
IDTI 48.990.0%Mar 29 5:00 PM EST
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To: Taut Knot who wrote (11371)4/7/2002 11:08:36 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (1) of 11555
 
This is a good time to trend trade. I think semis will head lower this summer. We might be near a short term rebound but I'd take that as an opportunity to sell or sell short on many of the stocks in this and other tech sectors. Perhaps by the end of summer we will see some real buying opportunities.

I have been around electronics technical sales and marketing for 30+ years and have seen several downturns. This is one of the worse because the contrast from the heights that were reached is so great. During each major downturn there was more involved than just a weak economic picture. There was the ups and downs of the sector drivers, such as PCs, and now more telecommunications, that contributed. With the major drivers of the semi sector doing poorly, it is unlikely that enough momentum can be generated from other segments to make up for the loss of overall business.

Their is a major "structural" problem in the telecommunications industry. Too many companies are deeply in debt. Even though there has been some consolidation there is still too much supply. This will take time to turn around, certainly not until 2003 at the earliest. It will take 2-4 more years for several companies to get their balance sheets in good order before they can plunge back into rapid expansion mode.
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