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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders
MSFT 481.72+0.2%Jan 28 3:59 PM EST

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To: Susan G who wrote (15208)4/8/2002 1:48:26 PM
From: Skywatcher  Read Replies (2) of 26752
 
Pelosky stays bearish on U.S. dollar By Julie Rannazzisi
Jay Pelosky, Morgan Stanley's global strategist, said he remains underweight U.S.
equities and expects the dollar to decline by 15 to 20 percent over the next several
years. "I look at the dollar as a stock that is widely owned, that has enjoyed a major
positive surprise (first-quarter economic data) and an oil price spike and yet has failed
to rise," Pelosky told clients in a research note. The strategist noted that a spike in oil
prices has typically been beneficial to the dollar as oil is a U.S. dollar-denominated
commodity. The dollar traded lower against the yen but rose modestly against the
euro. Pelosky expects a dollar correction to occur in conjunction with an increase in
foreign exchange volatility. Pelosky remains underweight the global energy sector on
belief the group is already priced for oil prices near current levels. The strategist
believes it's highly unlikely that many other Arab states will flock to Iraq's side on the
oil embargo front. The Morgan Stanley strategist also asserted that the Middle East
situation may herald a significant shift in the balance of oil power. "Russia is now
pumping more oil than the Saudis, surpassing them for the first time since the 1980s. I
believe that Russia and the former states of the Soviet Union will be a significant
energy source for Europe. The ability of Saudi Arabia to use its capacity to drive
pricing may well be changing," he commented.
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