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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK)

NOK 6.910

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To: Eric L who wrote (2191)	4/8/2002 7:31:42 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 9255

Updated Statistics on GPRS vs CDMA2000 1xRTT (4/1/08) Next-Generation Technology Commitments as of April 1, 2002 GSM cdma2000 GPRS 1xRTT In Service 115 13 8.8:1 Testing 13 ? Under 24 Construction Also 7 Contracted Considering ? 32 Launching or Trialing Total 159 45 3.5:1 Countries 66 19 3.5:1 Vendors 24 12 2:1 1/1/01 Handsets 62 25 2.6:1 1/1/01 Vendors 27 ? 4/1/08 Handsets 83 60+ 1.3:1 4/1/08 Source: GSM World CDG Cellular News Jacobs Presentation Handsets Shipped in 2001 GPRS 8 Million CDMA 6 million Source: Gartner Dataquest Supporting Links: GPRS Operators by Country gsmworld.com GPRS Contracts: cellular-news.com Detail on GPRS networks by country: Message 17300072 GPRS Terminals: gsmworld.com GPRS Resource Center palowireless.com CDG's cdma2000 3G Fact Sheet (updated regularly) cdg.org Detail on CDMA networks by country: Message 17301850 Qualcomm Sponsored 3G Today (updated regularly)* 3gtoday.com Notes on Subscribers to GPRS & 1xRTT Note: The 3G Today site gives updated 3G "CDMA" subscriber statistics. * Oddly enough the only 1xRTT 3G subscriber statistics are from the Korean carriers who classify 1xRTT to be 2.5G, even though it is implemented in spectrum that WRC-2000 classified as IMT-2000. They classify 1xEV-DO implemented in that same spectrum to be "3G". As of today Qualcomm Sponsored 3G Today lists 1xRTT subscribers at "over 6 million "3G" CDMA subscribers Today" (As of February 28, 2002) No subscriber statistics are yet filtered in from the other 10 1xRTT networks that have launched. On the plus side, the Koreans uniformly track 2.5G 1xRTT subscribers (whether or not they use data service or not, and whether or not if they use data services they do it on a trial basis or a subscription basis). 1xRTT of course is a voice and data service so this is perfectly legitimate. GPRS on the other hand is a bearer and a data service "overlaid" over GSM circuit-switched voice & data (at 9.6/14.4 kbps) and supplements HSCSD as well. No GPRS subscription data has yet been compiled by any research agency. SKT who was first to commercially launch 1xRTT in Korea has recently provided an exceptional overview of their 2G/2.5G network with their migration plans to 3G (using 1xEV-DO in 800 MHz and W-CDMA in 2 GHz) and it can be accessed here: sktelecom.co.kr In that presentation I find this set of statistics most interesting: * Year-End ARPU increased +14% from $32.5 to $37.1 primarily as a result of increased development of data services and content to support 1xRTT and newly introduced color handsets. * Slide 27: Prospects for Wireless Internet * 2001 - Wireless Internet data $228 mm: 5% of total revenue * 2005 - Wireless Internet data forecasted as $3 bn: 20% of Total Revenue * 2001 to 2005 - Wireless Internet data forecasted CAGR of 90% * Wireless Internet ARPU by Handset type - 2G IS95 A/B Non-Color $1,60 USD - 2.5G 1xRTT Non-Color $3.40 USD - 2.5G 1xRTT Color $6.30 USD The above statistics and a review of SKT's services indicate to me that the success of 1xRTT "Data" at SKT and in Korea is due to a combination of factors (not necessarrily in this order): --> 1xRTT data transmission speed --> Experience with packet-switched data since 1999 (IS95B) --> Unique metrics of Korean market (see presentation) --> "Always On" 1xRTT packet-switched data connection --> Unusually high acceptance rate of WAP early on (compared to US/Europe) --> Early introduction of meaningful data services --> Color handsets --> Color microbrowser (based on WAP 2.0) --> Other "data oriented" functions in handset OS (SKT's GVM) & UI --> Steadily increasing content (including color content) --> Strong development communitty --> Downloadable Java content and apps --> Refined market segmentation and new service offerings (SKT's TING & UTO) --> Integrated multi-interface Internet Portal Offering (SKT's NATE) All this bodes well for the success of wireless data (GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA/WCDMA with HSDPA/1xRTT/1xEv-DO/1xEV/DV), but it is not going to be an overnight slam-dunk. It wasn't in Korea. They have been at it in dedicated fashion for some time, and have put some of the pieces together that others have not yet, and they have a well conditioned, and receptive audience. ### - Eric -

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