<<7) Every valuation metric, comparing the current coming-out-of-a-recession timeframe vs. prior periods -- a la 1990 time frame -- indicate a major rebound is already in the cards.>>Just to clarify, by "already in the cards," you mean already priced in to the prices of the shares, right?
If so, I agree. When you find something that looks cheap, you look deeper and find out WHY it's cheap...and oughta be cheaper.
<<P/E, P/S valuations -- I just don't see the same cheapness or value.>> I don't either..but that leads to a broader point: Value is less about P/E, P/S, P/B and similar multiples and more about the quality for the /E, /S & /B. It's about recognizing red flags from accounting gimmickry to 'run on the bank' reputation & 'credit trigger' risks. And evaluating intangibles that may as robust Coke's brand [Survived New Coke] or as fragile as Enron's reputation. And it's about recognizing when concerns are overdone on some of the above issues. It's complicated and difficult. Smart people like you and Bill N aren't going to agree on these calls.
Graham's early works predated the SEC and covered a time when chicanery was common and investors just had to get behind the numbers, wait for the fat pitch and deal with it. Sound familiar? |
