<font color=red>Trials point to CDMA-450 as credible replacement for NMT
from EMC - Close
by Devine Kofiloto, Research Analyst
How likely is Europe to see the adoption of CDMA as the technology of choice for NMT-450 upgrades? The
discussion surrounding the future use of the frequency spectrum in the 450MHz band, currently used for the mobile
telephony system NMT-450, is finally coming to a head. The regulatory bodies in Norway and Sweden, NPT and
PTS respectively, have sent out public consultations regarding the future use of the existing NMT-450 frequencies.
The alternative courses of action being analysed by the regulators are:
Transition to a new digital technology (migration from analogue to digital)
Whether to grant a renewal of licence (extension)
Transition to land mobile services (TETRA).
Telenor Mobil's concession for its NMT network was originally expected to run out on 1 November 2003, but the
operator has applied for and been granted an 11 month extension till 31 December 2004, the same date on which
Telia's licence expires in Sweden.
The two main technical platforms that have been in the spotlight as regards the digitalisation of the analogue network
have been the two opposing standards GSM-400 and CDMA-450. Though a majority of NMT Association members
had earlier shown interest in the GSM-400 standard, given that most were already operating GSM networks in the
900 or 1800 MHz band, the GSM-400 scenario is now increasingly looking unrealistic. This follows Nokia's and
Ericsson's (the main drivers behind the initiative) decision not to continue with further development of the GSM-400
standard, citing a lack of satisfactory interest from operators ().
For operators wanting to go down this path, the CDMA-450 standard now appears to be the only option.
CDMA-450 has now gone beyond the development stage and is already being deployed in Eastern Europe.
Romanian operator, Telemobil digitalised its NMT-450 network to CDMA-450 and launched commercial
services on 7 December 2001 (). On 24 December 2001, Russia's State Commission for Radio Frequencies
(GKRCh) approved the construction of CDMA-450 networks in Russia with the objective that they should
replace existing analogue NMT-450 networks (). CDMA-450 is currently being trialed by two Russian
NMT operators, MCC and Delta Telecom in Moscow and St Petersburg respectively and from what can
be gathered so far launch is definite.
Sweden
A project group within the Swedish PTS set up to look into the issue, has come out with a preliminary
recommendation that the regulator prolong Telia's NMT-450 licence which runs out in 2004. The recommendation
continues that the extended licence should cover the period of time from and including 1 January 2005 until 31
December 2007. In his comment to EMC, Urban Landmark of the radio frequency department within the PTS in
Sweden, stated that the recommendation was merely preliminary, and that comments and feedback received from the
market players through the public consultation, are yet to be taken into consideration, leaving the issue still wide
open. A final decision on the matter is expected in a couple of months.
Looking at the options facing the Swedish regulator: a large part of Sweden, mostly the northern area is
currently covered by no system other than NMT. On this basis it is not at all likely that the NMT-450
network will be closed down and the frequency allocated to other use such as TETRA. As already
mentioned, the GSM-400 option is increasingly fading out of the picture, once again leaving only
CDMA-450. Interestingly enough CDMA-450 trials are being carried out in Sweden, in Northern Uppland,
in Uppsala and the coastal town of Oregrund. The trials which began in late February 2002, are being
carried out by Swedish mobile infrastructure provider, A Brand New World (ABNW), over NMT
frequencies borrowed from Telia, with the infrastructure provided by Lucent. Following a strategic
alliance signed in April 2000, ABNW has been working, alongside Lucent with other CDMA standards in
the field of product development and services.
ABNW's interest here is in supplying additional supplementary services, should the trial materialise into a contract.
The CTO of ABNW Mats Nilson has stated that indications received from the regulator as regards
migrating over to CDMA-450 have been positive. A decision over the licensing and concession issue is
expected soon. Should the regulator favour the migration option, then it is most likely Telia will go ahead
in deploying CDMA-450.
The two commercial terminals currently available are from Hyundai (H-100) and Synertek (S-200). Samsung has also
announced plans of launching CDMA-450 handsets soon, while ABNW also plans on having a CDMA-450 PDA
available before the end of the 2002.
Norway
In Norway, following the public consultation over the issue, the regulator expects to publish its findings and submit
its recommendation to the Ministry of Transport and Communication in early April 2002. According to Erlend
Fanebust a spokesperson for NPT, the regulator is expected to recommend a technological neutral licence
in its report. This would mean that whichever operator is awarded the licence can choose to deploy an NMT,
CDMA-450 or TETRA standard. Should it be awarded the frequency, Telenor Mobil has indicated it would favour
the GSM-400 solution depending on the availability of equipment and that it was keeping a close watch on
developments. Given signals from the equipment vendors at this point in time, this might not be a likely outcome.
Extending the NMT-450 licence beyond 2004 is definitely not on the cards, leaving CDMA-450 as the
alternative.
Denmark
Denmark's position remains unchanged. The NMT network was closed down at the end February 2002, and the
regulator is to allocate the available frequency to TETRA.
Finland
In Finland the regulator has decided that the 450 MHz will not be substituted when Sonera's licence expires in
December 2002. The frequency will be allocated to TETRA.
Conclusion
As unlikely as this might have seemed a couple of months back, CDMA-450 looks poised to become the
technology of choice in at least Sweden and Norway, should the regulatory authorities decide to favour the
transition from analogue to digital. Looking at current market developments, the prospects of a GSM type
development at 450MHz looks increasingly improbable. On the background of successful CDMA-450
deployment in Romania and advanced pilot trials in Moscow and St Petersburg, the case for CDMA-450
looks strong.
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