=DJ Siebel Falls -2: Guidance May Be Revised Down - Analyst
By Pat Maio
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LOS ANGELES (Dow Jones)--Shares of Siebel Systems Inc. (SEBL) fell nearly 10% Wednesday after Chief Executive Tom Siebel reportedly warned that the first quarter may have been the computer industry's historic worst, with further industrywide contraction to follow in coming months.
Some analysts worried that the tone of the remarks, which a company spokesman at its San Mateo, Calif., headquarters couldn't immediately confirm, may possibly indicate that Siebel Systems is about to revise downward its financial guidance for 2002.
"What is new is Tom Siebel's tone appears to have been modified," observed Mark Murphy, analyst with First Albany Corp.
"He was very bullish in his fourth-quarter conference call and he doesn't sound bullish now," he added. "This certainly increases the likelihood that Siebel will reduce guidance for the rest of the year."
Siebel made his remarks to Bloomberg News following a three-day, Siebel-sponsored European User Conference that ended in Barcelona, Spain, on Wednesday. He reportedly reaffirmed the company's forecast of 15% growth in software sales in 2002. He also predicted that 100 to 200 information technology companies will close this year, according to the report. An industrywide slump is blamed on the dot-com bust and a slowdown in corporate spending on technology. The contraction in the industry isn't over, he was reported as saying.
Murphy forecasts software growth of 7% for the company in 2002. He also questioned whether Siebel can maintain previous optimistic forecasts for his company given that International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Oracle Corp. (ORCL) and Check Point Software Technology Ltd. (CHKP) have recently raised warning flags about slower growth.
"The recovery is not happening," said Murphy, who sees a "70% to 80%" chance that Siebel will revise downward its guidance for the year when it announces its fiscal first-quarter results on April 17. Murphy is looking for revenue of $2.18 billion in 2002, versus $2.04 billion in 2001, and earnings per share of 59 cents this year, up 20% from 49 cents last year.
Siebel, which makes customer-service software, competes with Oracle and PeopleSoft Inc. (PSFT).
Shares of Siebel recently traded at $24.88, down $2.68, or 9.7%, on volume of 33.5 million, compared with daily average volume of 17.3 million shares.
-Pat Maio, Dow Jones Newswires; 323-658-3776; patrick.maio@dowjones.com
(END) DOW JONES NEWS 04-10-02
02:31 PM
=DJ Siebel Falls -3: CEO Didn't Preannounce 1Q, Analyst Notes
Rick G. Sherlund, analyst with Goldman Sachs & Co., who was attending the Siebel Users conference in Spain, said Siebel's comments confirmed the obvious about the industry's difficulties.
"The company hasn't said anything about their results for the quarter, but Siebel's comments are an acknowledgement about it being a tough environment," Sherlund said. "He's confirming that business is really bad out there. I don't need Tom Siebel to confirm that."
Last week, Sherlund lowered estimates for both this year and next year for Siebel and for Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) fiscal 2003, ending in June.
"It's important to note that Siebel didn't preannounce results for the quarter," Sherlund said.
-Pat Maio, Dow Jones Newswires; 323-658-3776; patrick.maio@dowjones.com
(END) DOW JONES NEWS 04-10-02
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