Thanks.
I feel like a gambler, who has won his last 10 bets, and now has a circle of admirers who think he can do no wrong. The thing is, I know a lot of my recent run of wins, is just plain dumb luck. It is a certainty, not just a probability, that I will make a big wrong call, at some point. Maybe a string of bad calls. It's happened before, and it will happen again.
Yes, I think I've got the discipline thing down. Took me a few years. And I feel like I've got a working knowledge of the range of macro factors that influence stock prices. Not that I can predict them, just that I know what to pay attention to. That, too, took a few years to learn. In the last 5 years, I've worked as hard at understanding stocks, as I worked in medical school.
I'm as diversified now, as I've ever been. Mostly because, I've been doing this long enough, I have slowly learned enough about enough different sectors, to invest in them. I started taking a position in biotech yesterday, for the first time ever, IBB (an ETF index tracker) at 71.
You are probably right, that I am not placing enough importance on the uncertainty of the future earnings streams of tech companies. I'm slowly coming to believe that you are right re EMC. I've bought and bought, 2004 LEAPs, from when the stock was 16+ last year, all the way down. Have way too much, and didn't lighten up in the rally last November, when I should have. With everything else I bought, though, I've been able to keep my cost basis somewhere near where the stocks have bottomed (or get out with nice ST profits). I can't argue with you, that valuations are still far above their LT (and reasonable) range. I will be aggressively selling my EMC LEAPs, whenever it next rallies And I'm making burnt offerings when the market opens, every day, to the Goddesses of Volatility and Chaos, praying for a rally in EMC sometime this year. I don't care if it doesn't last long, and is based on smoke and mirrors, I just need an intraday high of 14, to get out even.
Does everything in the buy-list you've posted, have a "transparently understandable successful track record" like AMAT?
I can honestly reciprocate: There is a small handful of people who I read every post they make, and take them seriously, and you are on that list. |
