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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (18057)4/11/2002 12:50:39 AM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Jay:

If you buy the demographics argument, which I mostly do, then the US is in for a tough time between ~2009 and ~2023. Looking that far ahead is ridiculous at first sight, but there is a reason why demographers refer to the generation following the baby boom as the "baby bust". There is a huge empty hole following the baby boom pig down the python.

Reason for optimism (of a sort) - Japanese demographics are almost perfectly counter cyclical to the US. So at the point when the US economy is going into the crapper at the end of this decade, Japan will be coming back strongly. Hard to believe the Japanese have six or seven more years of deflationary bust ahead of them, but that is what the demographics say. Also hard to believe that the US may experience fourteen years of the same thing. The wild card for the US is immigration, which was strong in the eighties and nineties and may prevent the worst case outcome here.
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