kollmhn,
Interesting methodology. Thanks for the "method to build an estimate".
IMVHO, 3001 however is entirely too politically incorrect and bearish this coming season. It won't pass muster with the Cheney crowd, inasmuch as it won't be possible to justify a good sweating of the consumer in the run-up to the heating season. In fact, it might tend to lull the speculators into seeking better opportunities in other gambits than gas. So, if it looks like gas in storage values might even begin to approach 3 T, we'll have a lot of shut in capacity that won't be seen on the AGA reports. Though it'll be ready for market, but only at the right price, for which I've indicated a minimum in my estimate. You may like big numbers, but the guys who are drilling the wells prefer big prices. And I dare say they have more to say about how the game turns out than either you or me. <g>
Not that I'm trying to induce you to change your tune. Not at all. I'm just trying to get myself on the record as to how this market is going to be run by those who can.
The factors at work include low interest/finance costs, lessened drilling effort, slightly greater demand, the imponderables of weather, slight possibility of Canadian reprisals for tariff wars, and the necessity to keep pumping GOM gas into the market ASAP. Among a hundred other factors.
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Interesting tidbit here about some funny bidness just before California got screwed:
nytimes.com |
