I would say I agree with you except for two facts: 1) Bambs started posting doom and gloom at the peak of Cisco's stock price and 2) he has made correct calls on both Cisco and gold ever since. So after two years of watching his predictions come true, I'm less apt to think he's merely a doom and gloomer. The other thing that governs gold prices is psychology. When the world seems very unsafe and the old standby safehavens aren't sheltering you like they used to, gold begins to look very good. The other thing is that the price of the dollar and gold tend to be inversely related. So I'd be very interested in opinions on where the dollar is headed, because that could be a good indicator for a rising gold price. So I'm not so quick to dismiss as I used to be. Right now, I'm torn though, because the economy is recovering although it is still fragile. The Middle East is the real wildcard for me, because if that situation didn't exist, I'd say we're out of the woods and I wouldn't bother with gold. Unfortunately, the Middle East is full of lunatics harkening back to the medieval ages, so markets and economies are adversely affected, which makes Bambs gold ideas more appealing to me.
BTW, one reason that I haven't been too worried about large caps and the generally crappy market over the last two years is that some of my other plays have hedged me quite nicely: csrsx (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?h=1&s=csrsx&d=c&k=c1&t=2y&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=l), ssrax (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SSRAX&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l), and ssmvx (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SSMVX&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l). |
