general market comments:
One more down day for the Nas, and we're in the 1600s. This is the area where the market has found support, in 2/02, and 4/01. I'd say the odds are >50%, that this dip bottoms somewhere in the 1600s. Which means, I will do no more selling, from here on down, just buying. I'm a bit over 20% cash now (sold a lot of WPI today and yesterday, bought small bits of IBB, BBH, LUEAD, ALTR). This stance is a bit more cash than I had targetted at this level.
Below the 1600s, we have the 10/98 and 9/02 double bottom, at 1400, which I consider rock-solid support. It would take something worse than 9/11/01, to get below there. An oil embargo, a hardline Islamic revolution in one of our crucial client states in the Middle East, a big military defeat, another big terrorist attack, something like that. I'd give this a 10% chance of happening, low enough odds that I'll be using margin heavily at Nas 1400.
From here on down, I don't think techs (including biotech) will underperform the general market. More volatile, as always.
So, I'm expecting we set a higher (intermediate-term) low, in the Nas. And, then, sometime this year, take out the 1/02 high (2098), setting a higher high. When that happens, I'll consider that the Bear Market, which began in 4/00, ended in 10/01. And I will probably go to 100% invested, and quit selling the rallies. If I don't get that confirmation that the Bear Market is over, I'll continue selling the rallies. |
