Juniper Networks - JNPR Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Juniper Networks - JNPR

JNPR 39.95

0.0%

Jul 2 5:00 PM EST

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To: sschahal who wrote (3159)	4/11/2002 8:13:10 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (2) of 3350

Taking into consideration this troubled environment it does not take a whole lot to make a somewhat positive impression but reviewing my notes some of the things said that seemed a bit more up-beat than what might have been expected were: --Still maintaining positive cash flow and are projecting to continue to do so. --Guidance was measured. Financial condition ok, visibility hazy due to six month Capex planning cycle by telecom sector, managing expenses prudently, Q2 revenues projected to be flat with Q1 (which could be a bottoming signal), book to bill at 1 or slightly higher. 1 or greater generally a bullish signal. --Though sector is difficult won't impair ability to execute their plan. Product pipeline on traditional track. --Services revenue contribution becoming important part of revenue plan. Conservative accounting methodology booking quarterly as delivered. Provides some level of annuity stream. Adding more customers which expands their services offerings. --Discussed necessity of Ebusiness applications to conduct business requirements efficiently. Utilize this model well. --Discussed state of their industry and its current lack of action and how new infrastructure will be needed to compete moving more to IP protocols. (opinion: key strategy issue and they seem on top of it.) --International business well represented. Good handle on China markets with successes. --Cost controls in place and in line with revenue and margin forecasts. --Q and A offered some focus on what analysts are thinking (if that matters any more). Lots of financial questions but if you listened closely to the CFO's presentation they were all answered earlier. --------Qs What about new products? A Continuous cycle, more in pipeline. --------Qs Telecom service providers, any Capex visibility? A They are on a six month cycle now, not full year, so 2H details sketchy so continued caution same as in 1Q. But new customers and projects coming in so not putting all eggs in existing Telecom customer set. --------Qs Any potential inventory write-downs and what about internal Capex? Nothing expected as far as additional write-downs and internal Capex flat within parameters of their internal financial guidelines. --------Qs How is DSO and bad debt? A there were bad debt write-offs of somewhere over 2 million. DSO (accounts receivable) ok, customers paying on time. Emphasized that the customers they have and the business they are booking are quality orders so they are comfortable with conservative estimates forecasted. --------Qs Stock buy-backs? A No activity this past quarter. --------Qs Service revenues assessment? A Services revenue is related to total customers and as we expand our customer set it will become a more important element in total earnings. Revenue deferred and amortized over life of contract. Take it quarter by quarter. (opinion: This is the correct way to recognize these kinds of services revenues so no accounting games being played to make up short-falls.) Services revenue forecasted to be flat for 2Q. Anyway, I have listened to many CCs and have 31 years experience working for technology companies in many capacities and I thought the two executives had a good handle on what the current environment consists of and what kind of conservative game plan is necessary to get them through this period. One or two more quarters and it is possible they are out of the woods for this down cycle. I see them as a survivor with an excellent vision of where these industries are headed from a technology standpoint and I believe they have the product plan positioned to maintain their current industry position and gain share as the sectors improve their Capex business plans. The above is an opinion only based upon what I heard. I have no position in JNPR nor any vested interest in any other capacity. I am not an analyst nor do I have any other agenda. TIA -- do your own DD. Always interested in other opinions.

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