Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 173.20

-3.3%

Nov 6 3:59 PM EST

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To: Rajala who wrote (116562)	4/12/2002 6:22:34 AM
From: qveauriche	Read Replies (1) of 152472

Raj- I'd love to sit down and share a good bottle of scotch whiskey with you. I don't know if we'd end up singing songs in the alley at 3:00AM or beating the hell out of each other, but I'd be willing to wager a bet that it wouldn't be boring. One more thing, Raj. The cartel is toast. They can preserve their relevance (if not their monopolistic grip) and make lots of money simply by listening to the master when it comes to CDMA and spend their r@d on doing to QCOM what QCOM did to them (that is,come up with the thing that takes us beyond CDMA to whatever comes next).Of course ,it won't happen because things like vanity and jealousy usually rule over common sense. But try to think for a moment where we would be today if the cartel had charged its engineers years ago to determine whether they could come up with a better CDMA design as opposed to one that was merely different. They would've concluded that the QCOM design was the best to exploit the advantages of CDMA back in 97 or 98. The Euro carriers would today be rolling out 1X across the continent, and enjoying the kind of results that SKT, KTF. and LG are enjoying today. Nokia would be dramatically raising guidance, and the outrageous prices the EURO carriers paid for that 3G spectrum may well have been a at least a break-even investment. QCOM share price would be way ahead of where it is now.So would Nokia's. QCOM keeps going the extra mile to give the cartel a face saving way out of this clusterf**k, even figuring out a way to use the 1X air interface over a GSM MAP core (did I say that right?), and even calling it GSM1X. It could be deployed almost immediately. I am not optimistic that the EURO carriers will even give it a second look. I have sadly concluded that the path chosen by the cartel has and will continue to defer and diminish the ultimate payoff for QCOM equity.The loss to the cartel and its carriers from this strategy has been staggering as well.They will succeed in compromising to some extent the success of QCOM, but it will be a pyrrhic victory. JMHO. Hope you're doing well.

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