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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 694.04

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Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who started this subject	4/12/2002 11:35:03 AM
From: HairBall	of 99985

NYA "Intraday" Chart... My QChart "Intraday" NYA (NYSE Composite Index) 130-Min Semi-log Chart Note: The price action is trading in a longer-term rising wedge off the Sept01 low. This portends at least an eventual partial retrace of this formation. Illustrated within the larger chart pattern are several shorter-term rising and falling wedges with the latest the current in play falling wedge. My intraday models are mixed and my daily model is a little below mid range and falling. This mix does not lend as much support to the shorter-term falling wedge break to the norm as I would like and have been positioning for. Supportive retrace levels coming into to play so far today are the 23.6% Fib level (583.49) of the Sept01 rally and the 50% Gann level (583.04) of the Feb02 rally. I have been expecting one more rise within this wedge before it breaks to the norm as I have been expecting the shorter-term falling wedge off the March02 pivot high to break to the norm as did the earlier wedge (thin dark blue lines). However, this test is not lining up with my intraday models as well as I would like. So, I am beginning to view this test and expected break to the norm of the March02 falling wedge with some caution (less confident). Keep an eye on the support line of the larger rising wedge for clues of a break down to the norm and on the short-term falling wedge for clues of a normal break up. The Russell 3000 chart I posted three days ago, after seeing an initial bounce at the rising support line off the Sept01 low, that support line was penetrated with yesterday's decline while the support line of the March02 falling trading channel held at about the 61.8% Fib retrace level (616.02) of the Feb02 rally. With this breach of the RUA Sept01 support line and with my intraday and daily models for the NYA mixed, I am NOW trading the market with caution waiting for the market to reveal its next move up or down. I am biased in my positions for a move up. However, I now think it possible that the NYA Sept01 Rising Wedge may break to the norm with this test. So, I am hedging my positions... My WOW NYA Chart can be viewed at the link below. Click on Chart 4. Note: This chart is a double screen capture and is extra wide. lgscharts.homestead.com Regards, LG Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on any one person's views or analysis, especially an anonymous message board poster such as myself. Do your own research and take responsibility for your own investment decisions.

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