OT JDSU crapshoot:
If I go to the tables in Las Vegas, I know the odds favor the house. What I'm doing with JDSU is different, in that I think (with the proper study, discipline, and investing/trading/gambling principles), I can play the game with the odds in my favor. Other than that, not much difference.
Back in November 2000, I made a large purchase of AMAT at 40. Sold it in January 2001 at 50, and waited patiently for the next dip. JDSU is, today, about where AMAT was in November 2000. That is, I think we are past the "free-fall" stage, and in the initial stages of a bottoming formation. I'm not saying we've seen the final lows. I'm saying the decline is now a slow grind, which I can successfully trade.
I use FA to decide the general area where I am willing to buy, and TA to decide the precise buy plan. I also use FA to decide whether I am trading or investing. I never buy just because the chart looks pretty. Do you think it is unreasonable for JDSU to earn $0.20 in 2003 or 2004, or whenever demand for their products comes back? Do you think a PE of 30 is unattainable? I don't, and I think 0.20 X 30 = 6. Do you see any potential for anyone to displace JDSU from their Gorilla status in their niche? So, I think it is unreasonably pessimistic, to think JDSU continues collapsing, and then never gets back to 5 in my lifetime.
And I am encouraged, when reasonable people are unreasonably pessimistic on a stock. Encouraged, because maybe the air is, finally, out of it. |
