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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (13259)	4/12/2002 2:26:44 PM
From: yorrs	Read Replies (1) of 23153

KB, BMY's normal historical volatility is much closer to 25. The 74 over the last 30 days is abnormal. On CBOE web site they show historical volatility was 54 for march 02. 21.46 for Dec. 01 and 27 for sept 01. I used their calculator and priced the JAN 04 30 calls and with a price of $5.50($5.20 bid 5.70 offer) the implied vol. comes up 32.49. This would seem high historically for long dated options in BMY. If you take out the abnormal high volatility from the last month. If you look at the near term options (like the may 02 35 calls) They are currently priced $2.00 bid at $2.40. This translates to implied volatities of %40 bid and offered at %50. So all in all the 04 options appear in line w/ the near term ones.

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