CIA backed coup in Venezuela big blow to OPEC says Iranian analyst
Anti-Chavez Coup Aimed At Controlling OPEC
By Mohsen Ilchi
TEHRAN -- Can a country, which has been one of the founders of the
Organization of Petroluem Exporting Countries (OPEC) prepare the ground for
the dissolution or inefficiency of this organization in the near future?
Although the coup which occurred in Venezuela on Friday is in line with U.S.
interests in Latin America and apparently has no direct effect on the Middle East,
still it is going to have a definite influence on the interests of the OPEC
members.
Since Hugo Chavez will no longer be the president of Venezuela, he will not be
able to defend the OPEC price range of 22 to 28 U.S. dollars per barrel. In other
words, Venezuela's oil policies should now be analyzed without considering
Chavez.
Venezuela is currently OPEC's fourth leading oil producer, producing 2.497
million barrels of oil per day. But political instability which started in its oil
industry led to general strikes throughout the country.
Today, one day after the military coup, Chavez, who was boosting OPEC's oil
policies in recent years, is being held in custody at a military base in the capital.
During the presidency of Chavez in Venezuela, OPEC managed to overcome a
crisis which was likely to reduce the oil price, whereas before Chavez, Venezuela
was regarded as a state which did not observe its quota.
During the presidency of the leftist Chavez, Venezuela, while continuing to be a
major exporter of oil to the United States, enhanced its relations with other OPEC
members, including Iran.
The role of Chavez in OPEC was enhanced at an OPEC summit meeting held in
Caracas. It was only the second time that Venezuela hosted a summit in the
40-year history of the organization.
In the summit, which provoked different reactions from oil-consuming countries,
even the Saudi Arabia as the first oil producing country in OPEC softened its
policy with respect to Venezuela.
But what would be the consequence of the aforementioned coup on OPEC? If we
assume that Chavez's support of OPEC has not been the reason for his
dismissal, there are certain indications that after the remarks made by the U.S.
Energy Secretary Abraham Spencer, the United States has been trying to replace
governments in oil-producing countries which are at odds with the U.S. in order
to secure U.S. national interests.
Thus, it is predicted that Venezuela will no longer support OPEC policies in line
with the interests of other members of this organization.
Another aspect of this situation which the Iranian foreign and oil ministries
should take into consideration is whether Venezuela will in the future act as a
pressure lever to keep the oil price low and oil production high, weakening
OPEC but not withdrawing from the organization.
These days, everything in Venezuela depends on the generals. |
