stratfor.com
EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
9 April 2002
Although the fate of the Japanese economy is of utmost importance, intense pressure from Washington in its hunt for al Qaeda and WMD proliferators will shape the region over the next quarter. Tokyo's ability to avoid a catastrophic collapse will generate a false sense of hope for the Japanese economy that will permeate an Asia preoccupied with what it perceives as more immediate issues.
North Korea will take center stage in Northeast Asia as the regime attempts to take advantage of South Korea's fear of an impending crisis to further strain trilateral cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. Meanwhile, the upcoming World Cup, which South Korea will co-host with Japan, and the nearing end of President Kim Dae Jung's term will only strengthen Seoul's sense of immediacy. Internally, the second quarter initially will be characterized by heightened labor unrest as Kim presses forward with privatization plans. Much of this will be swept under the rug before the World Cup begins May 31.
Japan will continue to pursue a fiscal policy that allows its economy to hobble along while trying to focus domestic and regional attention on other issues. Tokyo will continue to profess its support for U.S. anti-terrorism operations, sending its own forces to assist. This will accelerate Japan's military evolution, one of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's key goals. Koizumi will strengthen his calls for reform from within the scandal-ridden Liberal Democratic Party, threatening the power of conservative stalwarts in an attempt to regain his own support base.
In China, internal tensions will run high as the elite battle for control over the impending leadership change, which is set to begin in October. The outside pressure of Washington's anti-terrorism fight, which has brought U.S. troops into Central Asia, only increases China's sense of siege, and Beijing will be torn between standing up to the United States and avoiding stepping over the line that separates China from North Korea in U.S. eyes. As unemployment booms, China's economic reforms continue to bring problems to the regime. The country is experiencing an identity crisis, and the recent launch of an unmanned spacecraft may be part of a process to increase citizens' focus on patriotism and nationalism to counter foreign encirclement and domestic economic woes.
The terrorism issue will dominate Southeast Asia as national leaders seek to exploit Washington's hunt for al Qaeda and to avoid losing control of their domestic agendas.
Looking at individual countries, we expect reform efforts to slow in Indonesia as the corruption trials of high-profile figures such as Akbar Tanjung and Tommy Suharto prove to be shams. We also anticipate a growing U.S. presence in the Philippines and possibly joint U.S.-Filipino military action against rebels. Economically, Singapore will spend the next quarter attempting to regain its footing and to assert itself as the region's economic hub, while Vietnam prepares to exploit Cam Ranh Bay -- which Russia will vacate in July -- as a source of income. Australia, meanwhile, could begin to more seriously view itself as the United States' deputy in the region, prompting Canberra to mimic Washington's unilateralist rhetoric.
The United States will quietly scout for military basing agreements in the region, and bilateral contact among Asian nations will likely increase as they seek to retain control of their domestic policies In the face of overwhelming U.S. pressure. This may cause drastic vacillations between appearances of civility and accusations that neighbors are harboring terrorists. Countries will continue to do their best to disassociate themselves from terrorism and deny any activity of al Qaeda-friendly forces within their borders, while at the same time claiming al Qaeda links to their own domestic opponents to justify expanded political and security crackdowns. |
