stratfor.com
EUROPE
9 April 2002
A new Portuguese government joins conservative Italy, Spain and United Kingdom among the range of Euro-skeptics, shifting the balance of power further away from an integrationist Brussels. This is a particularly important evolution as Europe continues to formally discuss its future constitution. At the same time, the European Commission will continue to flex its muscles on issues of trade and corporate mergers. Nothing definitive will emerge on center-periphery relations, but tensions will intensify mildly this quarter on fronts such as labor policy and taxation. Though the French presidential election will be a big story, there is little substantive difference between the two candidates, President Jacques Chirac and Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. Neither will change France's fundamental direction.
Europe will continue to struggle with its global role vis-à-vis the United States. At once a key ally and a subservient junior partner, Europe will seek to challenge Washington on issues of minor importance. Therefore, more trade conflicts are likely, and Europe may challenge the United States over its policy on Israel. But when push comes to shove, Europe will quietly fall in line with Washington in the fight against al Qaeda.
This quarter also will see frantic moves by Central European countries -- as well as some former Soviet states -- to accelerate the qualification process for EU and NATO membership. There is a sense that events are moving quickly and in an unpredictable direction, both because Russia's current pro-Western slant threatens to leave them sidelined and because of U.S.-European tensions. Therefore, there is pressure to get in while the door is still open. The United States will encourage greater inclusion, since it is anxious to spread its capabilities over southeastern Europe to the Black Sea.
The Balkans will continue to be a thorn in Europe's flank. Small conflicts will keep Macedonia fragile, and the debate over the future of the Yugoslav federation will be heated. Continued theatrics by former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic in The Hague and further extraditions will have current President Vojislav Kostunica and Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic vying for the hearts and minds of common Serbs in Yugoslavia while blaming each other for kowtowing to the West. Debate over the proposed new entity of Serbia and Montenegro will provide the backdrop for a more direct confrontation between the two leaders, though resolution on the country's future and on Serbia's future leader will not occur before June. |
