Mish, a successful low retest should, in most case be above the prior low. Both the Naz and the DOW turned here at higher levels than the February lows. The same with SPX and Sox, only the NDX breached that low. The number of new lows today wa half that of yesterday, the number of new highs on the Naz at 248, nothing here that say we have a selling climax coming. Into a selling climax you get expansion of new lows despite the indices doing DCB here and there. I don't think this is a DCB, this is more like the post May 2001 high, another run, possibly to a lower high (thus my target at 1920/30.) Actually, during last summer/spring fluctuations, we saw contraction of new highs and expansion of new lows (of course, we still had many "walking dead"on the Naz, since delisted), thus,if new highs continue and expand during the coming rally, maybe even higher than 1930.
One of my less likely models has an outside chance of a run to 2128 now, before any major decline, but I'll be happy with 1930 (g). It is interesting in some respects and has similarity to the change of scenario last July, when the then expected double bottom (August/October) was changed into a coalescing single bottom in September. In the same way the original scenario of a double top in April and May could be coalescing to a single and higher top. Unfortunately, I do not have enough support for that hypothesis yet, thus the grading of "less likely".
Zeev |
