Henry Siegman International Herald Tribune
Saturday, April 13, 2002
NEW YORK In a speech April 4 announcing deeper
U.S. involvement in efforts to end the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, President George W.
Bush laid down several important markers
previously missing from American policy. These
included a new emphasis on halting Israeli
settlement construction in the occupied territories,
ending the humiliation of Palestinians and
proceeding expeditiously toward an "economically
and politically viable" Palestinian state.
However, the administration's approach to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains so deeply flawed
as to guarantee the failure of Secretary of State
Colin Powell's current mission to the region. The
administration continues to believe it is possible for
Yasser Arafat to implement a cease-fire and to
diminish the level of Palestinian terrorism by verbal
exhortation. What has been missing, in the
administration's view, is Arafat's willingness to
demand - in Arabic, of course - that the violence
come to an end.
The reality is that no matter how many speeches
Arafat will make condemning terrorism, it is entirely
predictable that the latest round of Israeli assaults
on Palestinian cities, towns and refugee camps,
which has succeeded in destroying what little
remained of institutions that make possible the
barest survival of Palestinian life, will trigger an
even greater wave of Palestinian terrorism that
neither Arafat nor anyone else can prevent.
This coming wave of terrorism will be seen in Israel
and portrayed in the United States not as the
inexorable consequence of Israel's depredations in
the Palestinian territories, but as irrefutable
evidence that Arafat has once again deceived Bush
and has therefore forfeited his last chance to
redeem himself.
The result of this utterly predictable and
unspeakably tragic course of events is that Ariel
Sharon will send the Israeli forces back into
Palestinian areas with even more destructive fury
than before, and Bush will declare that Arafat,
having failed once again the opportunity he offered
him to assert responsible leadership, will now have
to fend for himself.
For his part, Sharon, having finally achieved what he
always dreamed of - returning the situation in the
occupied territories to their pre-Oslo days - will now
wait for the emergence of "a new moderate
Palestinian leadership" that will accept his terms for
an end to the conflict. He said as much in his
speech to the Knesset on Monday. (Sharon has
learned nothing from his catastrophic efforts to
anoint Gemayel as president of Lebanon in 1982 and
to replace the PLO with a Palestinian Village League
in the mid-1980s.)
For their part, Arab countries will be newly united in
bitter hostility to the Jewish state. Just as Israelis
were convinced that Palestinian rejection of the
"generous" terms offered by Ehud Barak at Camp
David finally "removed the mask from Arafat's face"
and destroyed Israel's peace camp, so will Arab
countries be convinced that Israel's response to their
Beirut offer of peace and normalization - devastating
Palestinian cities and destroying the Palestinian
Authority - makes coexistence with the Jewish state
impossible.
Is there an alternative to this scenario? There most
certainly is; it requires that Powell say something
like the following when he sits down to talk with
Arafat in Ramallah on Saturday:
"We understand that the suicide bombings of Islamic
Jihad, Hamas and the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade will
not end unless you confront them by force and
engage them in a war that puts them out of
business. We also understand you have no hope of
winning such an internecine war, or of retaining
popular Palestinian support for such fratricide,
unless you can show the Palestinian people
immediate and tangible progress toward Palestinian
statehood, as well as an infusion of emergency aid.
"We will insist on a political process based on a
return to the pre-1967 borders, with changes to
accommodate Israeli security that are mutually
negotiated, not unilaterally imposed by the stronger
party, and we will join with the international
community in launching an emergency
reconstruction program."
"Since Israel's actions have largely destroyed
Palestinian security agencies and their capacity to
confront the terrorists, we will work with you to
repair the damage. Most important, we understand
that this will take time and cannot be achieved by
speeches, although we expect you to speak out
against terrorism and the incitement that feeds it.
"For our part, we will demand an end to Israeli
incitement by halting completely the construction of
settlements, and keep Israeli forces out of
Palestinian areas. But we will do this only as long as
your actions against terrorism and violence are
consistent, and as long as we remain convinced that
you are putting out 100 percent effort to achieve
agreed goals."
Powell is most likely aware that this is the only
approach that could change the catastrophic
direction of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Unfortunately, it is highly unlikely that he has a
mandate from Bush to have such a conversation
with Arafat. That is why whatever limited progress
will result from Powell's visit will be blown away by
the next suicide bomber, and will plunge the region
into even deeper despair.
The writer, a senior fellow on the Middle East at the
Council on Foreign Relations, contributed this
personal comment to the International Herald
Tribune.
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