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Strategies & Market Trends : News Links and Chart Links
SPXL 201.93-2.5%Nov 18 4:00 PM EST
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To: Les H who wrote (1732)4/13/2002 8:58:01 AM
From: Les H  Read Replies (2) of 29597
 
9-month cycle

cycle tendencies
10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low
Sep 21 start start start 965 none
Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A.
Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42
Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61
Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25
Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22
Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49
Mar 5 green green yellow 1146 + 50 1157 + 61 1074 - 22
Mar 28 yellow green yellow 1147 + 1 1173 + 27 1131 - 15
Apr 19 red yellow red 1111 - 36 1148 + 1 1102 - 45
May 14 green yellow red
Jun 6 yellow red red
Jun 28 red red red

22-week cycle

Sep 21 SPX trough
Dec 7 midpoint SPX crest
Feb 22 SPX trough
May 10 midpoint SPX crest
Jul 26 SPX trough

70% probability crest area is Nov 30 (week 10) to Jan 4 (week 15)
next 70% probability crest area is May 3 (week 10) to June 7 (week 15)

26-week Dow cycle troughs

Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379
Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks
Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks
Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks
Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks
Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks
Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks

sample size 6
total 156 weeks
average 26 weeks
st dev 2 weeks

Feb 22, 01 22 weeks minus 2 standard deviations
Mar 22, 01 26 weeks average cycle length
Apr 19, 01 30 weeks plus 2 standard deviations

Possible targets for approximate low SPX of current row made near April 19

(1) using the distance for each downleg

downleg 1: -43 points in 5 days; from 1174 on March 19 to 1131 on March 26
upleg 2: +23 points in 2 days; from 1131 on March 26 to 1154 on March 28
downleg 3: -43 points in 6 days; from 1154 on March 28 to 1111 on April 8
upleg 4: +20 points in 2 days; from 1111 on April 8 to 1131 on April 11
downleg 5: -43 points in 5-6 days; from 1131 on April 11 to 1088 on April 17-18

(2) using the distance from the previous row's close (1147)

a. maximum distance in a previous red/bear row

1086 = 1147 - 61

b. minimum distance in a previous red/bear row

1098 = 1147 - 49

c. average of the two distances

1092 = 1147 - 55

(3) using the distance from the previous row's high (1173)

a. maximum distance in a previous red/bear row

1074 = 1173 - (1177 - 1078)

b. minimum distance in a previous red/bear row

1101 = 1173 - (1126 - 1054)

c. average of the two distances

1087 = 1173 - 86

(4) using a fib multiple of the first downleg from 1173 to 1130

a. 1113 (1156 - 43)

b. 1086 (1156 - 1.62 * 43)

c. 1070 (1156 - 2.00 * 43)

(5) using a fib retracement off the February low

a. 1113 (0.62 retracement)

b. 1097 (0.76 retracement)

c. 1073 (1.00 retracement)

(6) using a fib retracement off the September low

a. 1119 (0.24 retracement)

b. 1086 (0.38 retracement)

c. 1059 (0.50 retracement)
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