To the thread in general: The following is from DEBKA-Net-Weekly via Worldnetdaily.
However before I get to that... like others on the thread I have been considering taking some profits off the table. Especially after the recent dip. However I have examined my reasons for being in the HUI stocks which are for insurance purposes as well as capital gains which have been good to date (on paper at least... Thank you Slider)and decided I'm in for the long term which I believe is probably another year at least.
If the following has any merit at all you can bet the US Gov. is on top of it which may explain the seeming desperation from Bush in his initial calls for Israel to pull back. If there is anything to what is reported below then I expect the "Cabal" to attempt to take gold down hard in the coming week since if the scenario unfolds anything close to this timetable then gold should move higher strongly and I think they will try to head this off early.
This part of the world is warming up and could get HOT very quickly. I for one am pleased to be positioned as I am but don't relish the idea of profiting from what may be about to unfold.
worldnetdaily.com
Friday, April 12, 2002
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FROM DEBKA INTELLIGENCE FILES
Countdown to Israel's
'Doom from Babylon'?
Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah, Palestinians set to initiate attack
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Posted: April 12, 2002
1:00 a.m. Eastern
Editor's note: DEBKAfile's electronic news publication is a news-cum-analysis live wire, online round the clock seven days a week. A weekly edition,DEBKA-Net-Weekly, is now available through WorldNetDaily.com. Drawing on DEBKAfile's unique sources, analytical talents and forward-looking insights, it is presented as a compact, intelligence-angled weekly package. It is available as a direct e-mail feed or via the Internet.
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© 2002 WorldNetDaily.com
The minute Secretary of State Colin Powell departs the region empty-handed, Washington's Middle East foes – Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah and the Palestinians – are set to initiate a coordinated military action with a view to reducing the United States to a powerless spectator.
Powell meets Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat today and tomorrow. His chances of bringing them anywhere near a cease-fire are generally rated nil – hence the pessimistic scenario seen by DEBKAfile's sources.
By now it is clear that President George W. Bush's continuous calls for Israel to end its Operation Defense Shield against terror strongholds in Palestinian cities are no more than lip-service to America's putative Arab allies. Even if Sharon pulls the army back all the way to pre-Sept. 28, 2000 lines – which he has promised not to do until "every last grain of terror is swept away" – Washington is under no illusion that the Palestinian leader will lift a finger to stop the suicide attacks against Israel, or that Hezbollah will desist from its hourly mortar-rocket barrages.
While openly slamming Sharon, the Bush team has not missed the burgeoning operational partnership between Palestinians and Hezbollah and their combined buildup with Iraq and Iran – with Syria's tacit blessing – for military action. This bloc's first goal is to ward off a U.S. military assault on Iraq, while at the same time rocking pro-American Arab regimes by rousing violent anti-government demonstrations in their cities.
After that, according to DEBKAfile's U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources, Iran and Iraq mean to stoke Middle East tensions, making sure that they strike first before America fires a shot in its campaign against Baghdad. This strike is expected to take the form of an Iraqi missile attack on Israel.
Yesterday, hours before Powell's landing in Israel, the Iranian foreign minister turned up in Damascus. At about the same time, Sharon was telling a Fox TV interviewer that Arafat is keeping an open channel of communication to Saddam, whom he accused of smuggling weapons to the Palestinians through Jordan and across the Dead Sea.
The point of maximum danger will arrive at the end of April. The countdown towards that moment begins Monday when the Iranian army and Revolutionary Guards start a large-scale five-day military exercise called "Wadat," or "Unity" in the Persian Gulf.
Iranian naval and air units will rehearse the seizure of the strategic Straits of Hormuz and impose a mock blockade on Gulf oil shipping bound for Western and Japanese ports through the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean. They also will practice amphibious landings on the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb in the mouth of Straits of Hormuz.
About 50,000 soldiers – paratroops, marines, naval commandos and members of amphibious armored units – are gathered at the port of Bandar Abbas, with a fleet of landing craft, fast missile boats, submarines and aircraft at their disposal. These units will rehearse the forcible seizure of the Gulf islands.
Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamenei and its president, Mohammed Khatami, will use the occasion of a visit to the troops to announce Iran is joining the Iraqi oil embargo announced this week against pro-Israeli countries, primarily the United States. They also will place the Iranian units exercising in the Gulf on supreme alert to meet any regional military threat, explaining that the ongoing Palestinian-Israel showdown may call for a response.
According to DEBKAfile's military sources, Iran last week secretly opened a permanent military liaison office in Baghdad to align Iranian military movements in the Gulf with the Iraqi general staff. Iraq also granted passage through its airspace to Iranian military aircraft heading to Syria. The Tehran-Damascus route via Iraqi air space has been operating now for nearly a month. Iranian military flights have been granted landing and refueling rights at Iraqi air bases in case Syria or Hezbollah come under Israeli or U.S. attack.
There are angles to the new partnership between the former foes, Iraq and Iran, aside from the use of Baghdad as a coordination center or transit point for Iranian military flights to Damascus.
DEBKAfile's military sources report that right after U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney phoned Syrian President Bashar Assad earlier this week – to ask him to persuade Hezbollah to call off its daily attacks against Israeli forces and towns – Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan popped up in the Syrian capital. Assad and Ramadan put their heads together on a division of tasks in the event of a regional war and ways of implementing the secret Syrian-Iraqi military pacts signed last summer.
Under one key provision, Syrian air force units may transfer to Iraqi air bases if their own facilities are attacked by Israel, and vice versa.
Assad's next secret visitor was Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. He came to Damascus with an Iranian mandate to petition the Syrian leader for permission to escalate the assault on Israel – first by switching to the heavier 120mm artillery, more advanced Katyusha rockets and eventually also short-range Iranian surface-to-surface missiles to replace the anti-tank missiles and mortars Hezbollah has been fielding.
The Hezbollah leader also requested permission to shoot missiles from Lebanon at Israeli targets on the Israeli side of the Golan Heights, which Syria lost in the 1967 war.
Assad, who told Cheney he had no influence with Hezbollah, granted its leader both requests, according to DEBKAfile's sources.
Nasrallah was therefore able to break a long-standing rule. Never before has territory claimed by Syria come under missile attack from Lebanon. Washington and Israel can hardly complain if the Lebanese attack the Golan with permission from Damascus. They also were being told that the Shiite extremist group, self-declared champion of Lebanese national interests and the Palestinian cause, has committed itself totally to fighting in Syria's wars.
No sooner was Nasrallah back in Beirut than his heavy artillery began pounding Israel and rockets flew over the northern Golan Heights.
DEBKAfile's military and intelligence sources describe the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut-Palestinian bloc's alignment as planned down to the smallest detail.
Iran will wrap up its military exercise and declare an oil embargo – as arranged – after which Iranian transports will begin ferrying ammunition, shells and missiles to Hezbollah, via the military section of Damascus international airport. These deliveries will keep the daily war against Israel well fueled. At the same time, the Palestinians will step up their suicide attacks against Israel, either directly or with outside help.
When the violence has been wound to its highest pitch, Iraq will step in with a dramatic and dangerous move. From April 24, Israel stands in grave danger of an Iraqi missile attack, launched for the sake of saving the Palestinians. This threat was signaled by Qusai Hussein, Saddam's son and commander of the elite Republican Guards, when he declared on Wednesday: "The Iraqi people is ready to fight Israel alongside the Palestinians, but its geographical location makes it hard to join the struggle. … Still, the Jews know that their doom will come from Babylon."
Now more than ever, with the Palestinians in dire straits, Iraqi leaders must make good on their high-flown pledges of aid, or else the Palestinian option in which Saddam has invested and held as a reserve resource will be dissipated. The level of rhetoric has escalated in the last couple of days. Sharon appears to be aware of Saddam's decision. He therefore is laying stress on exposing Arafat's operational links with Hezbollah and with Baghdad.
The top item on the agenda of his talks today with secretary Powell is most likely to be how Israel will retaliate for an Iraqi missile strike or, put another way, the strength of Israel's deterrent. |
