Richard, depends on the general market, which is looking a little shakey here. But if the market falters, I suspect this IPO will be postponed anyway.
Yes, I am absolutely considering it. The more I hear people railing about 7K subs, the more I am willing to buy it. The number of subs at this point is meaningless.
What is meaningful are the total homes passed by the partners, which is "humongous" and will get more humongous as more partners are added, and the momentum that is building for this service.
I'm not sure where they got only 7K, becuase I understand that they have added 2K subs in San Diego alone over the past month. Cox is still rolling-out areas in San Diego, and won't be fully deployed for another year. Both Cox (@home) and Southwest (Roadrunner) are installing these puppies as quickly as they possibly can. Local ISDN providers are losing subs big-time.
Realize that I am in a bit of a skewed environment, being a software engineer, but I don't know of a co-worker who doesn't either already have a cable modem or isn't on a waiting list to get one. (Most of them are Roadrunner, though, because of where they live. I will admit that Cox doesn't have the best demographics in San Diego.) This includes people who balked at the price just a month ago. Over the past month, it has sunk-in that this is only going to cost them $5/mo more than dial-up with a separate phone line, and much less than ISDN.
The "consumer experience" is incredible. This is the only Internet connection I've ever had that has been almost totally flawless. (It *has* been flawless since they came out to install a filter they forgot to on the initial install.) For the average consumer, (e.g. not a tech-head) the fact that they come out and install the hardware and software is a huge, huge advantage.
As a consumer, the service, even at $39.95/mo, is a steal.
This is IT. The entire future potential of the net - the dream of universal net access as a utility - bottled up into this one IPO. Netscape was prologue. THIS is the big kahuna.
Sure, it will pull back at some point (just like NSCP did), but it's gonna run on potential first.
I am also watching my "stealth play", HLIT, carefully. If it breaks out of that triangle to the upside, I am in. I beleive that if @Home is a big success, investors will be searching the side-roads for other HFC plays. |
