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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: valueminded who wrote (95521)4/14/2002 9:17:25 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius  Read Replies (2) of 132070
 
Hi Chris,

I think you have seen slow movement of US dollars to other alternatives. It seems like it takes around 2 1/2 years after any initial bust of a capital assets class to get the currency of that nation starting to show serious weakness. If one looks at the Yen after the bust in Japan this was true. If you look at the Aussy $, Euro, and Pound you will see slow movement to the upside. The Canadian $ had a nice move up and is now correcting and I am assuming this is a correction in a bull move. If you look at the CEF's that hold foreign debt they have been bought during the past year.

The CRB index has had a nice bounce off the its bottom and gold is being bought. This is telling me that money is moving into areas that will do well or at least have some value with a falling US$. PCL in the lumber area is also a good example of people hiding in hard assets.

The foreign funds have been doing well which tells me money is hiding in alternatives to the US dollar.

These things take a long time to correct because the average investor has not connected the dots like you have.

It could be that our treasury is buying dollars to keep things from falling apart rapidly, but as we all know all they can do is slow down the slide.

BWDIK,

Joan
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