Good point, Gottfried, on the P&F charts and their lack of 'timing.' As you know, they disregard the time element altogether. However, a P&F chartist would probably stay away from NVLS, TXN and INTC right now. Would he be right? We'll find out.
BTW - Bloomberg TV this morning had some commentators on INTC ahead of Tuesday's announcement. There seemed to be a sense that the stock is overpriced at these levels, with once-high margins at risk as PC sales stay weak and INTC moves into new chip markets where it does not enjoy the same advantages of scale.
I've had some good success since the autumn with cutting-edge niche players, which are benefiting from technology buys in semi-equip. But I recently took a bunch off the table after solid gains. I'm a bit concerned that any further macro weakness -- double dip, anyone? -- could leave these small players vulnerable to cash burn and related problems. That's clearly not a problem with AMAT, NVLS and the other big boys.
As I noted, I've only strayed from my hardcore FA in recent months, trying to bolster that analysis with some other tools, like P&F. I'm still learning.
Best rgds,
Jonathan |
