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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (51384)4/15/2002 6:12:41 PM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
Zeev, since I'm not as familiar with the semis as many others, I'm looking at a the SOXX's possible drop in June if we test the Sept. lows and wondering what level we may expect to see the SOXX at if the COMP is around 1400-1500.

The goofy thing is that the SOXX, unlike the COMP and NDX, hit its high in March, not January. Therefore, the Fibs haven't been worked out yet on that index. So far the SOXX has done a bit less than a .382 re-trace off the March high.

Last fall the SOXX seemed to do all its fibs at once on the parabolic drop from the high on Aug 1. It would seem reasonable that if we get breakdowns in the index, we could see the same action. I guess this depends on KLAC and some other strong stocks breaking.

Looking at support and fibs, it would seem that SOXX 400-410 would be a decent level of support if the COMP hits 1400-1500 on a re-test of the Sept. lows in June. I just can't see the SOXX at 500 if the COMP is at 1500. It hit 500 when the COMP was at a much higher level than here.

The other way this could work out is if the SOXX peaks early at say 595 and we get some sector rotation out of the SOXX and into the BTK or other sectors. That could enable the SOXX to settle down a bit while the COMP tops out.

Anyway, interested in any thoughts on this, as the SOXX seems like an easy target once this next top is in. I guess if KLAC breaks that could be the signal.
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