AMAT shorting plan:
Sell short, beginning at 60, and every 2.5 points on up, in small increments (1% of portfolio each lot).
I will short, all the way up to 100, if necessary. From 60 on up, there is no explanation for the stock price, other than a re-inflated Bubble. And Bubbles, by definition, get popped, sooner or later. That is, this is a ShortAndHold position. Sold my TXN long position today, so I am sitting on over 30% cash, now.
Haven't decided on when to cover, when it goes my way. Looks to me like there is weak support at 50, and strong support at 40. I will probably begin covering at 50. Then, if we break below there and continue down, I'd continue covering in small increments, finishing at 40. If we bounce at 50, immediately cover my entire position.
Looks to me, like we are getting good news, overall, from semis, and consistently good news from semi-equips. And everyone is ignoring the fact that the Powell peace mission is a total failure, and we are on track to ME war, revolution, and embargoes. So we may very well get a big rally here (assuming investors are watching CNBC, not CNN). But........looks to me like all that, and more, is already in the stocks. At these prices, semis are overvalued, based on the rosy scenario and 2003 earnings. And semi-equips are fully priced, for cycle peak earnings and a benign macro picture. |
