Ot re: "a good ME war"
That phrase is an oxymoron.
Yes, they've had wars before. Which were not good for stocks. And those wars led to.......... more wars, not to peace. Embargoes, and Islamic Revolutions in U.S. client states, have also been done before. And they weren't good for stocks, either.
At the bottom on 10/2/01, I made a very bullish prediction, that we'd see a 50% Nas bounce, off those lows.
Message 16444377
The reason I was so bullish, is that I saw the reasons for the selloff, as inherently temporary. Now, I see upcoming "exogeneous shocks" to the market, and I see no way to avoid them. The guerrilla war Israel is fighting, cannot be won with conventional weapons. Superiority in tanks and airplanes, means as little as it did for us in Vietnam. The only way you defeat a guerrilla army, is to separate them from their civilian base of support. Flattening refugee camps just means that Jenin gets added to Sabra and Shatilla, as reasons to hate Israelis.
Notice, the Bush administration has just suffered a severe diplomatic defeat. For a while there, Bush was saying, on a daily basis, that we were going to topple Saddam Hussein. He's stopped saying that, now, because he's realized (after staking his reputation and the prestige of his nation on it), that he can't do it. He can't attack Iraq, without access given by the surrounding Moslem nations. And they won't give that access, as long as CNN is showing pictures, every day, of Israili helicopters rocketing refugee camps. And we can't stop the Palestinian-Israili war. |
