re: What are your current AMAT earnings estimates for 2002, 2003, and cycle peak?
AMAT earnings estimates for 2002 don't matter in my valuation estimate, as they are trough numbers. As I've said before, I'm using cycle peak EPS (year uncertain, and it really doesn't matter) of $3.50, and a peak cycle PE of 20, giving a cycle peak stock price of 70. Getting more Exuberant, I could predict EPS of $4.50 and a PE of 30, giving a Bubblicious stock price of 90. Above that, well, Exuberance can always get more Irrational. For a while.
If AMAT earned $4.50/share (in today's pre-split stock), in 2003 or 2004, this would guarantee overcapacity in the semi industry, 12-24 months later. |
