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Biotech / Medical : IDPH--Positive preliminary results for pivotal trial of ID
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To: billkirn who wrote (1094)7/10/1997 12:57:00 AM
From: Howard Hoffman   of 1762
 
Scenario 1: No FDA Approval - IDPH goes below 10. Probability of this? Perhaps I am too optimistic, but there would almost have to be fraud at IDPH for this to happen. C2B8 has worked. It is a life saver and quality of life improvement for many of those suffering from low-grade NHL.

Scenario 2A: FDA Approval - IDPH goes down to 20 or so. This is somewhat consistent with past IDPH behavior, i.e. sell on news.

Scenario 2B: FDA Approval - IDPH goes up to ? There is something very different about IDPH once they get FDA approval. The company will undergo a once-in-a-company's-lifetime transformation. IDPH will go from being an R&D firm, mostly sucking in investment funds, to being a profit-producing enterprise. It will not happen overnight, but it will start immediately with FDA approval.

I have been through 1 first drug approval, with Interneuron Pharmaceuticals (They passed the advisory panel by 1 vote). There is no guarantee that IDPH will get the kind of publicity that pushed Interneuron to 5x what I paid for it in 15 months. However, IDPH will be a true American technology success story. Will IDPH be featured in the WSJ? IBD? Fortune? Business Week? Forbes? All of the above?

With a stream of profits coming in within a year or so from C2B8, what kind of new drugs will IDPH be capable of? Just about the most profitable business long-term in the US has been the pharmaceutical industry. This should be an interesting couple of months.
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