maui_dude:
"are you surprised with Intel stock price in AH and intels earning report"
Not really surprised with either (check my contest entries for INTC)...INTC's smoke and mirrors accounting have befuddled analysts for the 4 quarters preceding this release...Why would I think it's be any different this pass...Read the statements for yourself, particularly noting the $440 amortization differential in arriving at $0.14...(Just how much of that $4.388 billion in goodwill do you think is impaired???)With respect to numbers, INTC did provide what the market wanted to hear...I, for one, am not convinced the AH INTC love-in will be long lasting...
"or is your conviction getting even stronger that the 'crossover' is imminent ?"
AMD may need Hammer to get crossover...INTC's accounting wizardry continues to mask the fact that AMD has made serious encroachments into what, a mere 3 years ago, pre Athy, was considered by the same befuddled analysts alluded to above, unassailable INTC "pasture" (i.e. top end of performance ranges, mobile, and server spaces)...It may take the unassailable performance superiority of Hammer to convince the "analysts" that that AMD is for reall and contrarily, that INTC, with its p4, is like a withering grape on a vine...
Athy levelled the playing field, Hammer may tip it in AMD's favour much more than the advantage afforded by p3 in INTC's when AMD attempted to compete with K6-2...
The only positive that I see in INTC's statement is the 53% gross margins, but q1/01 numbers, a year ago, demonstrate the about the same 53%...If INTC can't decimate AMD in pre-Hammer markets, how, in heaven's name, will INTC do so when Hammer arrives...(N.B. I assume, unlike the naysayers in our midst, that Hammer will represent a far greater "advancement" in relative performance to Athy, than did Athy to K6-2!!!) Just no reason to think otherwise given AMD's outstanding relative execution recently...The trend is your friend...As the latest AMD financial statements strongly intimate, the next 1000 days for AMD could well propel AMD into unequivocal price/performance leadership over the competition, and it is precisely this "new paradigm" which could easily cause a rather abrupt realignment of relative capitalization of INTC and AMD...(If Hammer is as good as some are hinting, AMD share price could easily experience a repeat at least equal to the runup from Nov/99 to July/00...(I'm getting ahead of myself here, let's cross tomorrow's bridge first)...Like INTC, AMD has some issues, but fortunately, nothing like the $4.833 billion goodwill that INTC has sitting on its balance sheet (at least for GAAp purposes)... |
