In response to your PM about relative merits of advanced versus more grassroots plays right now:
IMO (PM world according to RW <g>), I think certain drill hole plays offer by far the best value: GNG, SUL, ARQ, IMR, WTC. I will predict those (as a group, watch out for individual names however) will be the biggest percentage gainers of all from here on out. I'd like to find some more of this genre (IWA??)to tell the truth, but it's more challenging work and riskier. I think Jim Steele is coming up with some good work on that front right now. I'm also leaning a little more toward the neglected base metal plays like IP, MAN, and CTQ as they control some big, scarce deposits and trade at very cheap valuations. A ten cent copper move will send these off the charts.
The advanced exploration plays are really going to need higher prices or buyouts, as marking them up on just speculative expectations won't work as well going forward. We will likely get some of both, but they've gotten pretty popular, and no longer are the huge bargains they were six-nine months ago. I've seen the non- hedged (I've correctly said avoid the hedgers: PDG, ABX as they will disappoint)producers as weak holds, but they are now sells, and haven't owned any since I sold MDG and GLG admittedly too early. I panned the SA and they've done very well, but I still feel I'm right about their status (poor).
As I go long term on my big position stocks like, CBD (double plus), MFL (triple), ELD (triple), GBG (back to break even, bought it wrong), NSU (triple), YMC (triple plus), a little more BAY I still have(double plus), FGX is gone (triple), I will be looking for exits unless metal prices rally more, and especially on added strength.
There are some more names in the advanced sector that have moved, but are strong holds, have very low valuations, as they haven't yet captured the imagination of gold speculators: MOY, NGT/AAS, BGI. I traded half the MNP I loaded up on at 10, on the surge over 20. The other holdings are all in the "mixed classes": SUF (near double, going for another), SLR, SWG, TNK (sort of breakevens). |
