Hi Elmat, US support for democracy is very selective, matching its opposition to tyrants. That game, like the Greensputin game, will lead to no good. Oops, speaking of no good ...
stratfor.com
After the Coup: Further Strains to Colombia-Venezuela Ties
16 April 2002
Summary
Relations between Venezuela and Colombia have chilled since Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez returned to office. A serious disagreement over the alleged presence of Colombian guerrillas in Venezuelan territory are causing tensions and the possibility of conflict along the countries' 1,400-mile border to grow. Given the current atmosphere, Washington could be dragged even further into the turmoil in both Venezuela and Colombia.
Analysis
Colombian President Andres Pastrana reaffirmed his support for the government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on April 16, Colombian daily El Espectador reported. The affirmation was meant as damage control, following criticism that Pastrana's government improperly welcomed the attempted coup in Venezuela.
Relations between Colombia and Venezuela have taken a sudden turn for the worse since Chavez's unexpected return to office. At the center of a growing diplomatic tussle are allegations -- and growing evidence -- that Colombian guerrilla bases have been established in Venezuelan territory. Chavez's reputed support for the rebels has done nothing to ease Colombian minds. Tensions along the border between the two countries are likely to increase and could lead to outright conflict unless Chavez or the Venezuelan military moves decisively to clear out the guerrilla camps.
The rising bilateral tensions further complicate U.S. foreign policy in the region. Pastrana is currently in Washington in a bid to convince Congress to loosen restrictions on anti-narcotics military aid to Colombia. A skeptical U.S. foreign policy establishment has been extremely wary of further engagement in Colombia and probably was ready to send Pastrana home empty-handed. Considering the new tensions, the United States now will be forced to become more engaged, in order to monitor the border situation and ensure that it doesn't get out of hand.
Chavez and his military supporters have long been accused of allowing units from Colombia's two leftist guerrilla groups -- the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) -- to operate in Venezuela. Gen. Martin Orlando Carreno, an army commander in northeastern Colombia, created a diplomatic firestorm in late March when he claimed that FARC guerrillas regularly attack Colombian forces from the Venezuelan side of the border and then retreat back into foreign territory to escape pursuit.
The Chavez government consistently has denied the presence of Colombian guerrillas in Venezuela -- denials the reinstated president repeated April 15. However, evidence that refutes his claims is growing.
For instance, on April 6, a FARC commander took reporters from Colombian daily El Tiempo to an encampment some 30 minutes by foot into Venezuela, where the reporters found 50 rebels and 20 heads of cattle. Also, Venezuelan army Gen. Nestor Gonzalez Gonzalez confirmed April 11 on Colombian Radio Caracol that Colombian guerrilla camps exist within Venezuela, saying he had "personally" verified camps with the capacity to house and train 150 to 200 guerrillas. Gonzalez claimed that Chavez and his senior military advisers know about the camps but have done little to dispose of them.
This may be why several Colombian Cabinet officials broke from the pack in Latin America and made public statements supporting the short-lived interim government in Venezuela. Colombian Foreign Minister Clemencia Forero Ucros on April 12 described interim President Pedro Carmona Estanga as a "great friend" of Colombia's and said that "we hope to have the best relations with the interim government," the Miami Herald reported. Pastrana himself reportedly expressed his support directly to Carmona by telephone April 13, hours before Carmona resigned, EFE reported, citing a Colombian government official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
These reports add fuel to an already smoldering diplomatic situation. Chavez's initial response came through his ambassador to Colombia, Roy Chaderton, who charged April 16 that he has a list of prominent Colombians who welcomed Chavez's fall. Colombian officials have protested the ambassador's statements as a threat to the neighbors' social and governmental relations.
As for the allegations of a FARC and ELN presence in Venezuela, Chavez's position has not changed. He stated April 15 that the border situation with Colombia is normal, Union Radio reported, indicating he has no plans to accept claims of a FARC presence on Venezuelan soil, much less move against foreign guerrillas. Without a change in foreign policy, tensions between the two countries will continue to rise as will the risk of cross-border fighting.
Inaction on the part of the Venezuelan government will make paramilitary incursions more likely. The leader of Colombia's main paramilitary group, the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), accused Chavez on April 11 of allowing the rebel camps and said that AUC fighters would consider going after the camps themselves. After Chavez's reinstatement, the AUC posted an open letter from its two top commanders on its Web site, calling Chavez a "persona non grata (and) extremely dangerous for Colombia's national integrity, " El Espectador reported April 16.
If the AUC determines that Chavez has been weakened, paramilitary fighters may feel emboldened to strike at FARC positions across the border -- raising the disturbing possibility of a conflict involving the FARC and the AUC on Venezuelan territory. This or other scenarios -- including incidents of FARC attacks launched from Venezuela -- could escalate to the point that Colombian and Venezuelan military forces themselves become involved.
That is an extremely bitter prospect for Washington. On the one hand, the Bush administration is committed to eradicating drugs and narco-terrorism in Colombia. On the other hand, Venezuela provides one-sixth of U.S. fuel imports and is key to U.S. energy security. If the two neighbors were ever to square off, U.S. foreign policy would be in a terrible bind.
Washington will be driven deeper into the turmoil in both Venezuela and Colombia, where it will be required to negotiate delicately in order to avoid a much deeper regional crisis. |
