Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 180.28

+4.4%

1:29 PM EST

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To: qveauriche who wrote (116816)	4/18/2002 7:53:38 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (4) of 152472

notice how many of those KDDI subscribers are replacements--i think the article said 60-70% ("Onodera said he estimates 60%-70% of the subscribers in April will be updating KDDI handsets"). back those out, and you could be looking at less than 85,000. also, i would be careful about building too big a case out of a single month (especially the launch month). after all, people were crowing on this board about Unicom's 500,000-sub launch...only to find their foot neatly planted in mouth when subsequent adds were pathetically low. also, i would not extrapolate Japan/Korea to world's other markets (like the US). i also have yet to see how QCOM is being compensated for NTT phones. and i am still skeptical about QCOM's long-term ability to maintain high royalty rates when its key patents expire. in any case, i think CDMA's relative performance against the world's more popular digital standards speaks for itself. i leave it to the wireless experts to make head or tails of that as they see fit. it is not the source of my bearishness on QCOM. as you know, i find it easy to produce a bearish case (which is convincing to me, if to nobody else) with a few taps on a $3 calculator. i can't believe my calculator cost more than rob v's phone. grrrr...

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