Russ, Frank, et al, Mind if I butt in for a remark from one in the business of using the some of the products developed for the biotech business, namely neurology? I have followed this sector peripherally for years and have developed some bias/opinion/pessimism...
The average cost for development of a new drug that actually makes it into the body of a patient, according to report from personal friend in a very large! US drug industry player with whom I climbed Mt Kilimanjaro in Africa
in 1989, and who is at this time very high in the ranks...500-750 million! Only a small fraction of drug candidates
pan out. From an intense professional interest in my specialty I followed a very interesting company a few years
back called Cambridge Neurosciences. On paper and in the lab they had a winner for stroke therapy far superior
to any then or now available. Stage III trials failed miserably. End of their story. They were a one pony show. Years ago Bill Gates played with quite a few companies in Seattle area and bought at right time and sold at right time one good gamble in ICOS which was a great investment. But please dear cohorts bear in mind that to play in the biotech sector, especially the smaller ones is so close to gambling I personally equate the two. Of the four other biotechs in the Seattle area at the time, not counting Immunex, all failed.
Now further FWIW please consider the demographics and the economics constantly on the minds of most on this
thread: These problems (demographics and economics, also governmental control) plague the entire biotech sector...drugs are very expensive to make, hence to be worthwhile
to drug companies that might buy the product candidates which pass Clinical Testing Stage III for FDA approval, said drugs will be VERY expensive. Who is going to be able to pay??? Remember the sides of the aisle fighting over medicare paying for drug benefits for seniors? Hello! Seniors still scream they want/deserve everything new for little and(... give somewhere take from somewhere else.) Where is that money coming from, and who is going to foot the bill. Will medicare
allow the drug to be used? Will the drug make real money, i.e., billion/yr+? We have a war going that is just getting started. It is a war with Islam, though it is not politically correct to state it so in such blunt terms. That has to be paid for too...where does THAT money come from?. Call it terrorism if you want but I'll stick with the name Islam, the name Salman Rushdie used in the London Times. Ssssoooooooo.....!
Don't bother about me making the wine go sour, just trying to let you guys/gals think about thinking about the downside of biotech.
Hope not to rain on anyone's parade, but this is no child's play and it is your own money? A potential investor needs to know how to read
beyond the questionable annual reports and interpret the clinical data from stage I and stage II trials and KNOW that does not always extrapolate to homo sapiens. Caveat emptor and good luck, compadres. Care to pay attention to the biotech Abbey is going to push? on her visit with Louis Ruckheyser?
Jim Black |
