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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (160995)	4/19/2002 2:49:58 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (3) of 436258

Jimmy Rogers is probably correct that we will have commodity inflation Countervailing force: productivity improvements elsewhere in the world. ie, Russia/China for base metals, Ni, Cu and so forth. As they adopt western process improvements financed with western funds. This doesn't require quantum improvements potentially possible with nanotech or bio-engineering that may occur. See example: Coffee. Reportedly trading at 30 year lows late last year. Why? Excessive planting in Vietnam and Central america. And you have palm oil (which can be converted to lubrication and even energy) plantations putting pressure on soybean oil/products. Best case I see for simple commodities: a near term stalemate as demand puts pressure on prices while supply continues to expand. Overall, thinking in terms of a decade, I think the amount of the consumer basket consumed by commodity expense will shrink as a percentage of the total. None of this is well researched (though Marc Faber reportedly developed historical data that showed commodity deflation to be the long term norm) just seat of the pants commentary designed to encourage the free flow of ideas.

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